Assumptions: SaaS product, similar market size per country, shared tech stack, team of 5.
| Dimension | 1 Country | 3 Countries |
|---|
| Cost | ~1× base | ~2.2× (not 3× due to shared infra) |
| Learning Speed | Slow but deep; single feedback loop | Fast; diverse signals in parallel |
| Operational Risk | Low; easy to pivot | High; localization, compliance, support spread thin |
Simple cost model:
def launch_cost(n_countries, base=100_000, shared_ratio=0.4):
shared = base * shared_ratio
per_country = base * (1 - shared_ratio)
return shared + per_country * n_countries
print(launch_cost(1)) # $100k
print(launch_cost(3)) # $220k
Verdict: Launch in one country if you're pre-product-market-fit. Launch in three if you have a proven playbook and need speed-to-scale. The learning-speed advantage of three countries only pays off when you can act on conflicting signals quickly.